【摘要】 根据汶川地震中绵阳市受损土石坝的实测数据,以大坝所在位置的地震烈度和地震发生前大坝的性态等因素作为预测因子,构造出土石坝震损裂缝预测的投影指标,采用可变阶的正交Hermite多项式拟合岭函数,并用单纯形算法优化投影指标函数,进而构建基于投影寻踪回归分析的震损裂缝预测模型,并将其用于该地区96座震损土石坝进行裂缝预测。将预测结果与实测资料进行比较,结果表明该模型具有较高的拟合度和良好的预测精度,为土石坝工程抗震设计和安全性评价提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the survey data of damaged earth-rock dam in Mianyang city of Sichuan Province after the Wenchuan earthquake,the predictive factors are determined by the seismic intensity of the dam site and the dam’s performance before the earthquake,and a new projection index of fracture prediction of damaged earth-rock dam is put forward.The variable-order orthogonal Hermite polynomial is used to fit ridge function,and the simplex algorithm is used to optimize the projection index function.Then the projection pursuit regression model is built to predict the fracture of 96 earth-rock dams damaged by earthquake of the region.The result of the fracture value predicted by projection pursuit regression model is compared with the survey data.It is indicated that the model has higher prediction accuracy and provides a reference for seismic design and safety evaluation of the earth-rock dam.更多还原