【摘要】 三峡水库蓄水必然会对大坝下游、地区江、湖的水资源开发利用及生态经济效应产生较大影响。本文选用数据包络分析(DEA)和Malmquist指数,根据长江荆南三口地区5个市州2000—2016年的面板数据,对荆南三口地区的水资源利用效率进行评估,并在此基础上运用Tobit模型剖析水资源利用效率的影响机制。结果表明:(1)总体而言,三口地区水资源利用效率呈上升趋势,但岳阳、益阳、荆州3市受三峡水库蓄水运行影响,水资源利用效率多年平均值较蓄水前分别下降了13.04%,20.37%和12.45%。(2)三口地区内部水资源利用效率呈现出一定的空间分异。水资源利用水平从高到低依次为宜昌、常德、岳阳、益阳和荆州,超效率DEA多年平均值分别为2.239,1.212,1.046,0.808和0.604;良好的社会经济水平有利于该地区应对三峡水库蓄水产生的负面效应。(3)自然资源禀赋、社会经济水平和产业结构是优化水资源利用效率的主要驱动因素,调整生产要素投入规模是在既定技术水平下提升水资源利用效率的最直接手段。人均GDP和第一产业在地区生产总值中所占比例与水资源利用效率呈负相关关系,而水资源总量的增加有利于水资源的合理利用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The operation of the Three Gorges reservoir has significant influence on water resources and the environment of cities around Yangtze River. Based on hydrology and economy data during 2000—2017, this paper made use of the date employment analysis and Malmquist total factor productivity index to evaluate the water utilization efficiency and its spatial and temporal changes of 5 cities in three outlets along Jingnan district, and to assess the inner influencing mechanism with the approach of Tobit regression model. Our results show that:(1) Taken together, the average Malmquist total factor productivity index of the entire Jingnan district was above 1, indicating that the water utilization efficiency in this district ascended in general. However, the construction of the Three Gorges reservoir demonstrated negative impacts on Yueyang, Yiyang and Jingzhou, resulting in the decrease of 13.04%, 20.37% and 12.45%, respectively, in the index value.(2) Among 5 states of the Jingnan district, the city water utilization efficiency in the descending sequence was Yichang, Changde, Yueyang, Yiyang, Jingzhou with the annual super-DEA value of 2.239, 1.212, 1.046, 0.808, 0.604, respectively, with cities with more prosperous economy and harmonious society showing better resilience to stresses due to the operation of the Three Gorges reservoir.(3) The natural resource endowment, social economy level and industry structure were the governing factors of water utilization. Per capita GDP and the proportion of first industry in gross domestic product were negatively correlated with the water utilization efficiency while the improvement of total water resource was found to enhance the rational utilization of water resource in these cities.更多还原