【摘要】 珠江三角洲经济发达，人口众多，水网密布，大部分又属于地震基本烈度７度区。在其范围内有属于大中型水库的土坝５５座，堤围总长数百ｋｍ。有关部门要求对土坝和堤围进行震害预测。本项预测采用概率方法，首先根据５５座土坝和５９个重点堤围的座标进行概率地震危险性分析，给出它们在一定预测年限Ｔ（取５０年和１００年）的地震烈度Ｉ的超越概率；其次根据近年我国发生的几次强震时处于不同烈度区内的土坝和堤防的震害资料，形成表示土坝和土堤地震易损性的震害概率矩阵；然后，根据上述两方面结果用概率公式评价各土坝和堤围卢、在预测年限内各震害等级的超越概率，并取１０％超越概率为标准，估计震害等级。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Pearl Delta is prosperous in economy,dense in population and closely distributed with water network,and most of the region are situated in the area of basic seismic intensity Ⅶ.On the Pearl Delta,there are 55 earth dams and embankments in mediu of large scale with a total lenth of several hundred kilometers.It is required to carry out earthquake damage prediction for these earth structures. In the prediction,the probabilistic approach is used,i.e.probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is first performed based on the coordinates of 55 dams and 59 key embankment points,giving the exceedance probability of intensity I of these structures for a given period T;secondly,the probabilistic matrix of damage,showing the vulnerability of these structures is formulated, based on damage information of the structures in different intensity areas in several strong earthqudkes recently occurred in China; then, the exceedance probability of different categories of damage for the structures within the predicted period is evaluated by the probabilistic equation,based on the above two results, and the category of damage of these structures is also estimated,taking 10% of the exceedance probability as the criterion.更多还原