【摘要】 通过可公度信息提取方法、蝴蝶结构图、震中时空迁移特征分析近50年菲律宾MS≥7级中、浅源地震,发现2013、2014年MS≥7级地震信号强,2014年最强;22年地震主周期明显,其中可划出活跃期与平静期;2012年为菲律宾新地震周期及活跃期的开始;菲律宾MS≥7级地震震中时空交替迁移规律明显,未来震中向西北部迁移。菲律宾MS≥7级地震与太阳黑子活动22年双周期关系密切,多发生在太阳黑子活动偶数周期极大年附近及其下降段。目前,太阳黑子活动处于第24周期极大年附近,2013～2014年MS≥7级地震发生的可能性很大,与可公度分析结果一致。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the study of earthquakes with MS≥7 in Philippines inrecent50years by using the method of commensurability、 butterfly diagram and space-time migration of epicenter,we find that there is a strong signal that earthquakes with MS≥7 will occur between 2013 and 2014,specifically in 2014.We also find that there is a 22a primary period of earthquake,which can be divided into the active period and quiet period,meanwhile,a new earthquake period and an active period begins in 2012.Temporal and spatial migration law of epicenter of earthquakes with MS≥7 in Philippines is obvious,and will move toward northwest in future.Earthquake with MS≥7 in Philippines is closed related to sunspot activity,it often occures in solarmax and descent stage when sunspot activity is even period,Now sunspot activity may be a solarmax in the 24 period,the occurrence probability of earthquake with MS≥7 is high between 2013 and 2014.This is basically consistent with the result of commensurability.更多还原