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t检验方法在评价水库地震中的应用

Application of the t Test in Evaluation of Reservoir Earthquake

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【作者】 钟羽云周昕卢显张帆

【Author】 ZHONG Yuyun1,ZHOU Xin1,LU Xian2,ZHANG Fan1(⒈ Earthquake Administration of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310013,China;⒉ China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijin 10045,China)

【机构】 浙江省地震局中国地震台网中心

【摘要】 引入t检验方法对中国1975年以后的30例水库地震震例进行了定量评价。评价中首先分别统计水库蓄水前、后水库区水域线20 km范围内的地震年频度作为统计检验的2个样本,然后通过F检验和t检验方法对2个样本的标准差和均值是否存在显著差异进行检验,根据标准差和均值检验结果判定水库蓄水是否诱发了地震活动。结果显示:①如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差和平均值均发生了显著变化,则水库蓄水诱发了地震。②如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差无明显变化,但地震年频度平均值变化显著,则水库蓄水可能诱发了地震。③如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差和平均值均无明显变化,则水库蓄水没有诱发地震。

【Abstract】 With the use of introduced t-test method,this paper evaluated 30 cases of reservoir quantitatively after 1975.First,the evaluation result make a statistic about earthquake yearly average occurrence ratio around 20km,before the impoundment of earthquakes as a sample,after impoundment as another sample.Then,with the use of the F test and t test to the 2 samples repectively,we known whether the standard deviation and average deviation of this two samples were the same and decide whether or not the impounding reservoir leaded to occurcence of earthquake.There are three possibilities: ① If the significant difference of earthquake frequency standard deviation and averages existed before the impoundment and after it,the impoundment induced earthquake.② If earthquake frequency standard deviation does not change,the average changes,the impoundment may induced earthquake.③If all of them do not change,the earthquake is not induced by the impoundment

【关键词】 t检验水库地震显著性差异
【Key words】 t testReservoir earthquakeSignificant difference
【基金】 国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAC38B03-01)
  • 【文献出处】 华南地震 ,South China Journal of Seismology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2012年04期
  • 【分类号】P315
  • 【被引频次】2
  • 【下载频次】202
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