【摘要】 系统研究了1970～2002年新疆天山30次中强震前地震增强现象,发现较大地震发生前中等地震的增强现象较为普遍;南北天山地震带增强区与后续主震震中相关性较好;除北天山地震带外,仅以地震增强现象作为地震中短期预测指标准确率太低;以增强发生后是否有平静现象发生作为确定短临异常的标准,预报效率可以提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research on seismicity increasing before 30 mid-strong earthquakes from 1970 to 2002 in Tianshan mountain in Xinjiang shows that it is common for activity of moderate earthquakes to increase before stronger events. There is good relation between the increasing region of seismic belt of southern and northern Tianshan mountain and the epicenters of sequent mainshocks. It is less accurate only to take seismicity increasing as the prediction index of mid-short term earthquakes except in the seismic belt of northern Tianshan Mountain. The prediction efficiency will be improved if taking quiescence after earthquake increasing as a criterion to distinguish the short-impending anomaly.更多还原