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稳健估计b值及中强震异常特征研究
Research on robust estimation of b value and abnormal characteristics before moderate and strong earthquake
【摘要】 利用M估计的稳健回归方法,选取ψ函数为正态密度型函数,计算震级-频度 关系中的b值。对基于随机泊松分布的模拟地震样本及天然地震样本,用稳健估计方法 与最小二乘方法计算b值后进行比较得出,对于天然地震样本,稳健估计得到的b值更 加符合震级-频度关系。作为应用实例,将最小二乘估计法b值与稳健估计b值的偏离 度作为中强震的前兆判定指标,对新疆地区b值进行时间扫描。在对北天山及南天山东 段Ms≥5级、南天山西段Ms≥6级地震前异常特征进行讨论后,认为该指标作为中短期 地震预报指标具有一定的实用性。
【Abstract】 In this paper, using robust regression and choosing a function as normal density type function, we calculate b value in the relation between magnitude and frequency. After compared the earthquake samples from simulated Poisson distribution and natural earthquake samples, we think that b value calculated by robust estimation is accordant with reality. As an application example, difference (Db) between b value by least square estimation and by robust estimation is used as a discriminating index for precursor of moderate and strong earthquake. After discussing anomalies before earthquake with MS > 5 occurred in the North Tianshan and the east of South Tianshan zone, earthquake MS > 6 occurred in the west of South Tianshan zone, we also think that Db is certain practicable predicting index for moderate and strong earthquakes.
【Key words】 Robust regression estimation; Least square estimation, Difference between (Db) and b value; Tianshan zone;
- 【文献出处】 华南地震 ,South China Journal of Seismology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2001年02期
- 【分类号】P315.61
- 【被引频次】1
- 【下载频次】52