【摘要】 将震级m、距离r以及地震动误差ε三个随机变量视为一“体”，在场址地震动峰值给定条件下，首先引入临界震级、临界距离和临界误差的概念。根据临界值变化的性质，给出了三种相互等价的全概率积分，并对其中的一种导出了它对震级-误差积分的解析表达式。由于本文给出的全概率积分均已包含衰减的随机影响，因此不存在不确定性校正问题；但与此同时，对现行的不确定性校正方法提出了一个修正建议。地震活动空间非均匀的概率积分，一般只能数值求解。本文所给出的表达式不仅具有解析特征，而且空间权重矩阵直接出现其中，这就使占绝对比重的大部分计算工作显著减轻，计算精度亦相应提高。最后，本文采用“信息过滤”技术给出了一个确定空间权重矩阵的实用方法，并以我国东南沿海地震带为例，列示了其部分数值结果。经笔者近年来在自编程序上大范围内应用表明，实际效果良好。更多还原

【Abstract】 A concept of the critical magnitude, displacement and the deviatsion of peak ground motion for the trinity of random variables is firstly introduced under condictions that the peak of seismic ground motion at the site is given. fused on the distributions of the critical variables, three total probability integratlons to the equivalent each other are presented, in which an analytical expression of the integration is deduced over the variables of magnitude and deviation. There is no need for correction of attenuation uncertainty since the effects are all taken into account on the probabilistic integration, but on the other hand, there is a discussion on the existing correction approch of that and a suggestion is made on the revision of the approch. In generally, the probabilistic integration with non-unifordrity of seisdricity can only be calculated by using of numerical methode. The analytical form which is in terms of the space weight - matrix is offered, so that the numerical calculation which accounts for dodrination portion is reduced, and the precision improved obviously. It is suggested that the spatial weight- matrix is determined through the approch of "filtering information". The numerical results of some potential source zones in the seisndc belt of southeastern coastal China are shown as an example. In recent years, the data files are applied to a program developed by auther and the analyses in all the region indicated that good results are achieved.更多还原