【摘要】 为更好地模拟与控制衡阳盆地的水资源管理,本文选用SWAT模型模拟衡阳盆地径流量。通过广泛收集衡阳盆地区域河流水系、土壤、土地利用/覆盖类型、自然地理、水文气象等详细数据资料,运用Arcgis10.2.2平台及SWAT2012模型在衡阳盆地流域开展地表径流模拟研究,采用Variable Storage方法进行参数敏感性分析,验证SWAT模拟对衡阳盆地的适用性,选取Nash-Sutcliff标准(E)对模型有效性误差进行判定。结果表明:2003—2013年间,E值均大于0.7,属于乙等,SWAT模型适用于衡阳盆地区域径流模拟。2014—2023年,衡阳盆地2014—2023年间地表径流量平均值由2014年的8 688.3×108 m~3下降至2023年的5 807.1×108 m~3,整体呈下降趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to provide scientific basis for water resources management in Hengyang Basin,we simulated the runoff of Hengyang Basin by SWAT model. Data of river system, soil, land use/cover type, physical geography and hydrometeorology in Hengyang Basin was collected extensively. Surface runoff simulation was carried out based on Arcgis 10.2.2 platform and SWAT 2012 model. Variable Storage method was used for parameter sensitivity analysis to verify the applicability of SWAT simulation to Hengyang Basin. The Nash-Sutcliff criterion(E) was used to determine the validity error of the model. The result showed that the E values in 2003—2013 were higher than 0.7, which meaned that the SWAT model was suitable for regional runoff simulation in Hengyang Basin.From 2014 to 2023, the average surface runoff in Hengyang Basin declined from 8 688.3×108 m~3 in 2014 to 5 807.1×108 m~3 in 2023, showing a downward trend as a whole.更多还原