【摘要】 为促进农业灾害预防和减灾工作的开展,利用Mann-kendall检验和Morlet小波法研究了黑龙江省1980-2015年农业低温冷害和风雹受灾率的时间变化特征。结果表明:在1980-2015年,低温冷害受灾率呈下降趋势,风雹灾害受灾率呈上升趋势,但二者均未通过0.1水平上的显著性检验。通过Morlet小波分析可知,低温冷害和风雹受灾率的变化主周期分别为7和19a,通过变化周期小波系数拟合可知,二者受灾率在2017-2019年处于正相位。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to promote the prevention and mitigation of agricultural disasters,we studied temporal change characteristics of agrometeorological chilling injury disasters and hail &tornadoe disasters which affected agricultural productivity in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2015 by Mann-kendall and Morlet wavelet methods.The results showed that the disaster rates of chilling injuries were in the trend of subsiding and the disaster rates of hails &tornadoes increased from 1980 to 2015 by Mann-Kendall analysis.The change trends of the two agrometeorological disaster rates did not pass the significant test at 0.1 level.The results of Morlet wavelet variance of agrometeorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province during 1980-2015 analysis showed that disaster rate of chilling injuries and hails &tornadoes changed periodically at 7 aand 19 atime scale,respectively.The disaster rate of chilling injuries and hails &tornadoes over the period 2017-2019 would remain in positive phase.更多还原