【摘要】 为构建一套有效选择可再生能源的指标体系和评价方法,考虑多种能源的不同特性对环境与经济承载力的制约,围绕经济、环境、技术、社会政治及能源来源质量5个维度,提出能够全面评价可再生能源的指标体系和基于情景模糊动态MABAC (多属性边界逼近区域比较法)的评价方法.在评价方法构建上,采用情景模糊集(picture fuzzy set,PFS)对MABAC进行改进,实现在多准则决策问题中利用模糊信息进行精准决策.在此基础上,将时间因素与MABAC相拟合,进一步求得可再生能源与边界逼近区域的贴近度,确定与地方环境承载力相适宜的可再生能源.结果表明:在考虑时间因素的条件下,风能、太阳能、水能与边界逼近区域的贴近度分别为0. 102 66、-0. 133 90、0. 040 16,说明风能为经济效益最佳的可再生能源,太阳能为可利用能源;在未考虑时间因素条件下,所得到的贴近度则与之存在差异,风能、太阳能、水能与边界逼近区域的贴近度分别为0. 011 29、-0. 058 00、0. 023 40.研究显示,基于情景模糊动态MABAC评价结果与实际情况更相符,且通过模型的验证过程来看,该模型不仅可以提高结果的精确性,也同样易于实施和便于推广.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to construct an effective indicator system and evaluation method for renewable energy,consider the constraints of different energy characteristics on environmental and economic carrying capacity, and propose five dimensions of economic,environmental,technological,socio-political and energy source quality. It can comprehensively evaluate the indicator system of renewable energy and the evaluation method based on the scenario fuzzy dynamic multi-attribute boundary approximation regional comparison( MABAC) method. In the construction of evaluation method,the improvement of MABAC is improved by using picture fuzzy set( PFS).Realize the use of fuzzy information for precise decision making in multi-criteria decision-making problems. On this basis,the time factor is fitted with MABAC to further obtain the closeness of renewable energy and boundary approximation,and determine the appropriate environmental carrying capacity renewable energy. The results show that under the condition of time factor,the closeness of wind energy,solar energy,water energy and boundary approximation area are 0. 102,66,-0. 133,90,0. 040,16,respectively,indicating that wind energy is the most economically beneficial renewable energy source. Solar energy is available energy; obtained without considering the time factor The closeness is different from the similarity. The closeness of wind energy,water energy,solar energy and boundary approximation area are 0. 011,29,-0. 058,00,0. 023,40. The research shows that the results based on the scene fuzzy dynamic MABAC are more consistent with the actual situation,and through the model In the verification process,the model can not only improve the accuracy of the results,but also be easy to implement and promote.更多还原