【摘要】 咖啡因是一种主要来源于茶和咖啡类饮料的中枢神经兴奋剂.调查其消费量对于监控人群健康和咖啡因消费市场规模有重要意义.本研究采用污水流行病学的方法对辽宁省7个主要城市的咖啡因消费量进行调查,利用气相色谱质谱分析测定污水进水样品的咖啡因浓度均值为2.77±1.55μg·L^-1,结合污水厂进水口流量、咖啡因的人体代谢数据和污水厂服务人口数量等参数估算辽宁省咖啡因的人均消费量为39.5 mg·d^-1.利用蒙特卡罗方法对估算的消费量进行不确定性分析,结果表明,辽宁省城镇居民人均咖啡因消费量为41.2 mg·d^-1(95%CI:22.9—74.4 mg·d^-1),结合2017年辽宁省城镇人口数据（2950万）计算,辽宁省城镇居民日均咖啡因消费总量为1210 kg(95%CI:680—2190 kg·d^-1).敏感性分析表明咖啡因的人体代谢因子为反推过程中对不确定性贡献最大的参数.本研究为咖啡因消费的调查提供了一种实时和快速的新方法.更多还原

【Abstract】 Caffeine is a stimulant of central nervous system derived from tea and coffee drinks. Investigating on its consumption is important for monitoring the population health and the size of the caffeine consumer market. In this study, a sewerage epidemiology method was used to investigate caffeine consumption in seven major cities in Liaoning Province. The mean concentration of caffeine in influent wastewater samples was determined to be 2.77±1.55 μg·L^-1 using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The per capita consumption of caffeine in Liaoning Province was estimated to be 39.5 mg·d^-1 based on the combined data of the influent flow rate of the wastewater treatment plant, the human metabolic data of caffeine, and the served population of the wastewater treatment plant. Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the consumption, and the results showed that the per capita caffeine consumption of urban residents in Liaoning Province was 41.2 mg·d^-1(95% CI: 22.9—74.4 mg·d^-1). In 2017, the urban population of Liaoning Province was calculated to be 29.5 million. The total caffeine consumption of urban residents in Liaoning Province was 1210 kg·d^-1(95% CI: 680—2190 kg·d^-1). Sensitivity analysis shows that caffeine′s human metabolic factor is the parameter that contributes most to the uncertainty in the process of back-calculation. This study provides a rapid and timely method for the investigation of caffeine consumption.更多还原