【摘要】 通过对青藏铁沿线区域地震地质调查和近百年地震资料整理,以此为基础建立震级-频度关系式.根据历史地震重演和构造类比分析的原理,并结合青藏铁路沿线地震构造带的分布情况,对青藏铁路沿线区域地震危险性进行预测.结果表明,青藏铁路沿线区域震级-频度关系中b值为0.72,最高震级上限为8.2级,8级地震平均发震周期约80年,未来百年内8级地震发生概率0.86,青藏铁路约有过半以上里程处于较高风险区.更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper is a geological survey of the region along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and hundred years of seismic data collation,as the basis for the establishment of magnitude-frequency relation.Predicting the seisimic risk of Qinghai-Tibet railway by the methods of structural analogy and distribution of seismic belt to extrapolate recurrence of earthquake.The results show that the value of b in Qinghai-Tibet Railway magnitude-frequency relation is higher(0.72) than others;the maximum magnitude is 8.2;the earthquake cycle on average is about 80 years;the occurrence probability in next hundred years is 0.86.Based on the above findings,the half mileage of Qinghai-Tibet railway in III area,we should attach close attention to the earthquake disaster mitigation.更多还原