【摘要】 中国的经济发展伴随着高能耗和高排放,研究减排成本以把握二氧化碳减排的社会和经济代价具有重要的意义。首先,本文计算了30个省市区1997-2013年的二氧化碳排放量和碳强度;用国有能源工业固定投资数据得到了各省份2003-2013年的总减排成本数据。其次,建立了总减排成本、碳强度及城市化水平之间的四种面板数据固定效应模型,并基于碳强度减排目标进行了情景分析;最后得到了边际减排成本曲线。研究发现,能源结构、经济规模及经济增速等因素决定了各省区二氧化碳排放、碳强度及减排成本差异较大;城市化水平对总减排成本的弹性系数在4.5左右,每提高一个百分点,总减排成本会增加440亿元左右。随着碳强度的下降,总减排成本先减少后增加;如果考虑城市化水平的提高,总减排成本不降反升。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese economic development is associated with high energy consumption and high emissions. It is significant to study abatement costs to grasp the social and economic costs of carbon dioxide emissions. Firstly, this article calculated carbon dioxide emissions and carbon intensity of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2013, obtaining total abatement cost of provinces from 2003 to 2013 based on fixed investment of state-owned energy industries. Secondly, this article established four models of panel fixed effects concerning total abatement cost, carbon intensity and urbanization, and made scenario analysis based on carbon intensity reduction targets; finally, this article got the marginal abatement cost curve. According the research, factors such as energy structure, economic scale and economic growth determined that carbon dioxide emissions, carbon intensity and abatement costs of different provinces are quite different; the elasticity of urbanization to total abatement costs are around 4.5, and total abatement costs will increase by 44 billion yuan with urbanization ascending one percentage. With the decline of carbon intensity, the total abatement costs will first decrease and then increase, which will rise rather than fall concerning the rise of urbanization.更多还原