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CN中期地震预报方法及其在华北地区的应用检验

CN MID-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION METHOD AND THE CHECK OF ITS APPLICATION IN NORTH CHINA REGION

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【作者】 周翠英王红卫蒋海昆

【Author】 Zhou Cuiying; Wang Hongwei; Jiang Haiying(Seismological Bureau of Shandong Province,Jinan City 250021)

【机构】 山东省地震局

【摘要】 按两种分区和两种对象划分方式在华北地区进了TIP中期地震预报方法中CN算法的应用检验。结果表明,被检验的中强地震中有80%震前出现了TIP,TIP持续时间最长3年多,最短0.7个月,平均为14~16个月左右。TIP警戒时段占总研究时间的32%,综合计算报准率R值为0.5左右。表明该算法不失为一种较好的中期地震预报方法,在华北地区有实用意义。最后对方法中某些有待改进的问题进行了简单讨论。

【Abstract】 By two kinds of zonings and two kinds of targets division, the application of CN algorism of TIP mid-term earthquake prediction method is checked in North China Region. The result indicates that 80 percent of the checked moderately strong earthquakes showed TIP, the longest duration time of TIP is more than three years, the shortest one is 0. 7 month, its average is about 14-16 months. The warning time intervals of TIP made up 32 percent of the total studied time, the accurate prediction rate R value of comprehensive calculation is about 0. 5. It is indicated that the method can yet be regarded as a better mid-term earthquake prediction method, Which is significant in North China Region. Finally, some respects which have yet to be proved of the method are briefly discussed.

【关键词】 地震预报地震前兆中期预报华北
  • 【文献出处】 华北地震科学 ,NORTH CHINA EARTHGUAKE SCIENCES , 编辑部邮箱 ,1995年02期
  • 【分类号】P315.7
  • 【下载频次】19
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