【摘要】 用改进的Ｍ８算法研究了１９７９年以来大华北地区存在的ＴＩＰ，即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明８次中强震有７次发生在被判定为概率增长时间内，ＴＩＰ警戒占研究总时空域的４０．７％，Ｒ评分为０．４６８。获得了较好的中强震中期预测内符效果，表明该方法可作为大华北地区中强震中期预测的手段之一。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper studies the TIP, that is the probability increase time of the strong earthquakes occerrence, existing in North China area since 1979 by modified M8 algorithm.The result shows that 7 of the8 moderately strong earthquakes occurred in Probability increase time, the TJP warnings.makes up 40.7% of the studied total time-space domain,. the evaluated point of R is.0T468, objaining a relativelygood mid-term prediction effect of moderately strong earthquakes,which indicates that this metbod canbe used as one of mid - term prediction means of moderately strong earthquakes.,in lage North Chinaarea.更多还原