【摘要】 应用故障树分析的方法,对华北平原地震带地震空间分布函数进行重新厘定。应用断层破裂长度与面波震级、地震矩、矩震级之间的关系公式确定华北平原带各潜在震源区的地质因子;应用最大似然法、贝叶斯预测方法和地震活动度方法确定各潜在震源区的因子;综合考虑各因子情况,建立动态概率安全性评价的空间分布函数故障树,计算得到华北平原带潜在震源区的空间分布函数,并由新的空间分布函数计算了实验场地的地震危险性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the fault tree analysis method,Seismic spatial distribution functions in North China seismic belt are determined.Geological factor of each potential earthquake source in North China seismic belt is calculated by using the relation between the fault length,the surface wave magnitude,the seismic moment and the moment magnitude.Meanwhile,the active factor of each potential earthquake source is determined by maximum likelihood method,the Bayesian prediction method,and the seismicity method.Considering all the active actors,the fault tree of spatial distribution function for probabilistic safety evaluation is built,and thus the seismic spatial distribution functions in North China seismic belt is obtained.In addition,the seismic risk of one test site is calculated by the newly achieved Functions.更多还原