【摘要】 全球性海平面上升对中国沿海地区发展的影响越来越显著.运用"源-路径-受体-影响"(SPRC)模型分析海平面上升对沿海地区发展脆弱性影响机理,从资源、环境、经济以及社会4个方面综合构建了沿海地区发展脆弱性评价指标体系;利用主成分分析法消除评价指标间冗余信息,结合RBF神经网络方法,对沿海各个地区在海平面上升情景下发展脆弱性进行了相关研究.结论显示,中国华东、华南沿海地区脆弱性等级较高于华北、东北沿海地区,而各区域内部脆弱性等级差异较小;从时间演变分析,2006-2016年,中国沿海地区整体脆弱性等级呈上升趋势,局部地区保持平稳.更多还原

【Abstract】 The impact of global sea level rise on the development of coastal areas in China is becoming more and more significant. Based on SPRC(source-pathway-receptor-consequence) model, the mechanism of impact of sea level rise on vulnerability of coastal areas development is analyzed,and vulnerability evaluation index system of coastal areas development is established from four aspects:resources, environment,economy and society.Principal component analysis is used to eliminate redundant information between evaluation indices.RBF(radical basis function) neural network method is used to analyze vulnerability levels of coastal areas under sea level rise scenario.The results show that vulnerability levels in coastal areas of East China and South China are generally higher than those in North China and Northeast China,and the difference of vulnerability levels in each area is small.The overall vulnerability level of coastal areas in China shows an upward trend and remains stable in local areas from 2006 to 2016.更多还原