【摘要】 为解决环境保护与农户畜禽规模化养殖间的协调发展问题,基于EKC理论对河北省畜禽养殖规模化程度与污染物排放量之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:河北省畜禽养殖规模化程度与污染物排放量之间的关系呈"倒U型";将此模型中的因变量y（畜禽养殖污染排放量）与其他变量进行相关性检验,y与x（规模化程度）、x²和x³的Pearson相关性分别为0.744^**、0.563^**、0.415^**,均呈显著正相关关系,回归方程可以通过F检验,且常数项和各自变量均通过T检验;通过对模型方程求导并计算,得出河北省畜禽养殖场最适规模为2.2万头猪当量以上,属大型规模。目前,造成河北省畜禽养殖污染物排放的主要来源为占比78.8%的中、小型规模畜禽养殖场。因此,在制定相关政策时,亟需加强对中、小规模养殖场的监管与补贴,促使中、小规模养殖场对养殖污染物进行处理。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to realize the coordinated development between environmental protection and the development of large-scale livestock and poultry farming in Hebei province, the empirical study was conducted to explore the relationship between the livestock and poultry farming scale and pollutant emissions based on EKC theory. The results indicated that the relationship between the scale of livestock and poultry farming and pollutants discharge in Hebei Province is inverted U-shaped,and the dependent variable y（pollutants discharge from livestock and poultry farming）in the model was teseted with other variables.The Pearson correlation between y and x（scale）,x² and x³ was 0.744^**,0.563^**and 0.415^**,respectively,which proved a significant positive correlation relationship.Moreover,the regression equation was successfully tested by F test,and the constant term and each variable were also tested by T test.It was concluded that the optimum scale of livestock and poultry farms in Hebei Province is more than 22,000 pigs by deriving and calculating the model equations,belonging to large size of breeding.At present,the pollutants discharged from the small and medium-sized livestock and poultry farming account for 78.8%of the total amount in Hebei Province.Therefore,the government in Hebei Province urgently needs to strengthen the supervision and subsidies for small and medium-sized farms,so as to promote the sustainable development of the small and medium-sized farms in Hebei.更多还原