【摘要】 利用贵阳市1963—2017年的降水观测资料,采用M-K检验及谐波分析等统计方法对贵阳地区年降水变化特征进行了分析,并且建立了基于谐波分析方法得到的贵阳市降水预测模型。结果表明:①贵阳地区近55 a的年降水量呈递减趋势,但变化不显著。另外贵阳地区年降水存在显著的年代际变化特征,并且在1980年左右发生年代际突变,降水由之前的偏多转为偏少;②贵阳地区的年降水量存在显著的准2～3 a的年际周期振荡以及准25 a和7 a的年代际周期振荡;③基于谐波分析得到的贵阳市降水预测模型能有效预测贵阳市未来的年降水变化趋势,并且对一些突出的旱涝年也能较好的模拟和预测出来,该模型预测效果良好,可在实际业务中应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the precipitation observation data of Guiyang from 1963 to 2017, the annual precipitation change characteristics of Guiyang area were analyzed by using m-k test, harmonic analysis and other statistical methods, moreover, the precipitation prediction model of Guiyang based on harmonic analysis method was established. The result show that: ① The annual precipitation in the Guiyang area in the past 55 years shows a decreasing trend, but the change was not significant. In addition, the annual precipitation in the Guiyang area has significant inter-decadal variations, and inter-decadal mutations occurred around 1980, precipitation changed from the previous excess to the less; ② The annual precipitation has obvious inter-annual periodic oscillation of quasi 2～3 years and inter-decadal periodic oscillation of quasi-25 years and 7 years in Guiyang area; ③ The Guiyang precipitation prediction model based on harmonic analysis can effectively predict the future annual precipitation trend of Guiyang, and it can also simulate and predict some outstanding drought and flood years, the model has good prediction effect and can be applied in practical business.更多还原