【摘要】 以南方电网供电区域的5个省份,即广东、广西、云南、贵州和海南为研究对象,借助玻尔兹曼分布的碳排放配额分配模型对该区域的碳排放配额进行分析研究,具体分析了玻尔兹曼分布参数和碳排放配额以及碳排放需求之间的关系,并比较分析了基于玻尔兹曼分布的碳配额分配结果和基于历史排放法的碳配额分配结果。结果表明:中国南方电网供电区域的碳排放配额主要被两个省份影响,即贵州省和广东省。拥有最大全部碳排放量的广东省和拥有最大人均碳排放量的贵州省,二者之间的碳减排责任转移问题也可由模型中的玻尔兹曼分布参数β值确定。与历史排放法相比,基于玻尔兹曼分布的碳排放配额分配方法的碳排放配额和碳排放需求的差值比率波动范围较小,表明该方法更加符合公平原则。该方法对于南方电网供电区域中碳排放配额机制的制定和占据碳排放总量较大比例的电力行业的碳减排研究提供了一些参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study investigates allocation of CO₂ Emission Permits based on Boltzmann distribution model for power supply areas of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited（ CSG） throughout Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,Guizhou and Hainan Provinces. The relationship between Boltzmann distribution parameters and carbon emission quotas and carbon emission demand is analyzed in detail,and the results of carbon quota allocation based on Boltzmann distribution and carbon quota allocation based on historical emission method are compared and analyzed. Research shows that,allocation of CO₂ Emission Permits in the areas is mainly influenced by Guangdong province and Guangxi province with Guangdong being with the largest total carbon emissions and Guangxi being with the largest per capita carbon emissions. The transfer of responsibility for carbon emission reduction between the two can be determined by parameter β from the Boltzmann distribution model. Compared with the historical emission method,the difference ratio of allocation of CO₂ emission permits based on Boltzmann distribution fluctuates in a smaller range,which shows that the method is more in line with the principle of fairness. The findings of the paper have policy implications and reference significance for the optimization of allocation of CO₂ Emission Permits and carbon emission reduction research.更多还原