【摘要】 对几种震害预测方法进行了回顾。对其中典型的不同的五种方法进行了地震动参数、抗力参数、修正系数、判别参数及方法性与可靠性进行了初步的对比研究。最后,对其中的4种方法运用层次分析法判断了它们之间的可靠程度并给出了可靠性排序。结果表明,这些方法对多层砖房震害预测结果的可靠程度差不多,其中高小旺提出的方法最为复杂,其可靠程度也最高。利用给出的排序结果,可以用作多种方法震害预测的结果评定的权系数。更多还原

【Abstract】 Several different seismic damage prediction methods are reviewed.The difference of typical five methods on seismic parameters,resistance parameters,modifying factors,deciding parameters,and complexity and reliability are discussed in detail.The analytical hierarchy process is applied to determine the reliability of these methods.Although the reliability of the discussed methods is similar,the method presented by Gao(1991)has rather higher reliability and complexity.The sequence index of these methods can be used as weight coefficient when the multiple seismic damage prediction methods are employed.更多还原