【摘要】 按照中国大陆及邻近地区活动地块和地震区带的研究成果,选择昆仑山地震亚区为研究单元,提取研究单元1970年以来半年极大值地震。该极值地震资料具有地质单元一致的特征,也代表研究单元地震趋势水平的变化。极值地震具正态分布特征,使用7阶高斯函数模型,对资料进行最佳逼近拟合,模型中参数用最小二乘法求取,递推未来1~2年时间进行地震趋势探讨。引用定量方法探讨有关研究单元的地震趋势值得深入研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to research on seismic region and belt in China and adjacent areas,as the study object to the Kunlun Mountains sub-seismic region,extracted extreme earthquakes occurred in each semi-year since the year of 1970. The data,with consistent feature of geological membership,acted on the behalf of earthquake trend changes of the research unit. As for extreme earthquakes showing characteristics of normal distribution,applied 7-level Gauss model on the data to do fitting optimally using least square method,and explored the earthquake trend in the future next 1 ~ 2 years. It is worthy of further study on the relative seismic region or belt to adopt quantitative methods for seismic trend.更多还原