【摘要】 利用近年来在海原断裂带各断裂段取得的最新古地震资料,通过实时概率模型,对海原断裂带东段、中段、西段进行了地震潜势的定量评估。得出海原断裂带东段、中段、西段未来100年内发生7级以上地震的概率分别为3.15%、11.35%、5.15%,未来200年内发生7级以上地震的概率分别为6.05%、22.8%、9.75%。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Haiyuan fault is divided into three sections.The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Haiyuan fault is analyzed with real-time probability model,the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section.The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Haiyuan fault,the East,Middle and West area in the next 100 years are 3.15%,11.35%.5.15%,in the next 200 years are 6.05%,22.8%,9.75%.更多还原