【摘要】 概率理论为大量工程应用中包含的不确定性分析及影响提供了数学依据。本文讨论贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用。贝叶斯模型假定分布参数为未知的随机变量 ,充分利用主观判断和观测数据通过贝叶斯公式得到房屋震害概率的合理估计。以地震考察取得的房屋破坏资料为基础 ,举例说明了贝叶斯模型的实际应用。内容涉及到概率平均分布函数、贝叶斯估计及贝叶斯更新概率等重要概念。还讨论了 1次地震事件及连发地震事件的影响所基于贝叶斯模型建立的房屋震害矩阵适用于成丛型地震的震害预测更多还原

【Abstract】 Probability theory provides mathematical basis to apply uncertain analysis to engineering. The application of Beiyes model in earthquake damage prediction of buildings is discussed in the paper.Beiyes model supposes distribution parameter is unknown random variable. It utilizes subjective judgement and objective basis to estimate earthquake damage probability of buildings through Beiyes theoretical formula. Based on earthquake damage of house obtained by earthquake investigation, the model is explained. Contents of the paper involves some concepts: average distributional function of probability, estimation of Beiyes, renew probability of Beiyes, etc. Earthquake damage probability matrix of established based on one and continuous events is applicable to like jungle earthquakes.更多还原