【摘要】 电力是国民经济的动力,而5.12汶川发生8.0级大地震后,变压器相当于经历了一次超出相应承受能力的破坏性试验,损失严重。为科学了解和分析变压器受灾情况,以确保现有投运变压器的安全可靠运行,有必要对震后变压器的受损程度及剩余寿命进行调研和评估,从而为变压器的全寿命周期管理和安全运行提供依据。该研究把统计学、数值分析、神经网络、管理科学及建筑学等多类学科融入到变压器震后剩余寿命评估中,建立了基于可靠性的变压器震后剩余寿命评估柔性模型。通过对汶川地震后四川省十三个地区变压器震前和震后的数据抽样收集、整理,并结合国内外地震数据库的资料和现场抽样试验方法,计算了失效率寿命分布曲线,为震后变压器的安全可靠运行提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power is the momentum of the national economy.After 5.12 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake,transformers come through a devastating test of exceed endure capability,and the loss are very heavy.For understanding and analyzing the status of transformers,it needs to investigate and evaluate the remaining life of transformer after the earthquake so as to ensure the stability and safety function of the transformers at work.The remaining life predict of transformers can afford the foundation of the whole longevity manage and safety function.Statistics,numerical analysis,neural network,administrant science and architectonics are integrated with the remaining life evaluation of transformers in this paper,establishing the flexible model of transformers remaining life evaluation by the reliability.Through the sample collecting and regulating of the transformer during the thirteen regions of the Sichuan province before and after Wenchuan earthquake,integrating the datum of the domestic and overseas earthquake data-base and the method of the sample test on-site,the life loss degree are calculated as an example.These afford the foundation for the safety and reliability function of transformers after the earthquake.更多还原