【摘要】 人口问题对社会和经济可持续发展有着直接的影响.准确预测人口数量对政府制定与社会经济发展相协调的政策、计划有着重要的意义.国家全面二孩政策的实行,将直接影响着我国人口的增长.为了提高人口的预测精度,根据2010—2017年陇南市的人口数据,采用灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型和生长曲线建立陇南市人口变化的数据模型,并与实际数据进行了拟合.结果表明,预测得到的数据与实际数据拟合性较好,满足相应的验证精度,可以用来预测未来陇南市人口变化趋势,为当地政府确定建设思路和制定发展政策提供参考.更多还原

【Abstract】 Population problems directly affect the sustainable development of local society and economy.The accurate prediction of population has a decisive significance for the local government to formulate policy and plan coordinated with social and economic development.The comprehensive implementation of the national two-child policy will directly affect the growth of China′s population.In order to improve the accuracy of population prediction,according to the population data of Longnan City from 2010 to 2017,the model of grey system GM(1, 1) and growth curve were used to established the model of population change in Longnan City, and it is fitted with the actual data.The results shows that the predicted data fit well with the actual data and meet the corresponding verification accuracy,which can be used to predict the future trend of Longnan City population,and provide reference for local government to determine construction ideas and formulate development policies.更多还原