【摘要】 根据地震环境下不同恢复阶段的社会经济活动及交通系统特性,对传统交通预测四阶段法———出行产生、出行分布、方式划分、交通分配的宏观模型进行了修正,讨论了不同模型的参数变化趋势,建议了参数的调整原则及方法,进而以修正四阶段法为基础进行震后交通需求预测。该方法简便易行,预测得到道路通行能力、流量、负荷度和平均运行时间等多个指标,为城市交通系统防灾规划提供决策依据。最后,结合我国东南沿海某城市的工程实践,有针对性的进行了应用和验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the social economic activity and traffic characters in different period,the authors modified the traditional four-stage traffic demand estimation model,which included traffic generation,trip-distribution,mode split and traffic distribution.The changing tendency of different parameters in the models is discussed and the parameter adjustment principle and method are suggested.And then based on the modified four-stage method,the traffic demand in response to natural disaster such as earthquake can be estimated.It can help the government to make anti-disaster plan.The method is easy to use to get a number of forecast data,including capacity of roadway,volume,the V/C and average travel time,which are the base of emergency response plan of urban transport system.Finally,the research method is used in engineering work in a city in the south-east of China.更多还原