【摘要】 随着高速公路的逐步网络化,突发事件可能造成路网中的部分节点或路段失去其通行能力,进而通过节点或路段的耦合关系影响整个路网的运行效率。为保障高速公路网的安全畅通运营,本文提出考虑流量加权的高速公路网脆弱性评价方法。首先,针对传统复杂网络理论介数指标计算中路径选择与实际情况的偏离,本文综合考虑客货车等不同车型组成及驾驶员出行选择行为的影响,定义了概率介数指标以反映不确定性选择场景下的节点或路段的网络重要度;其次,以出行效率及出行需求满足率作为路网脆弱性测度指标,结合网络交通量的随机均衡加载,提出考虑流量加权的高速公路网脆弱性评估方法,以量化节点或路段失效后对高速公路网的影响程度;最后,结合山东省区域高速公路网和高速公路收费数据,按照不同的节点/路段的重要度指标降序排列进行蓄意攻击,分析高速公路网脆弱性。实例结果表明:无论是节点还是路段,与传统的介数攻击模式相比,按照概率介数进行蓄意攻击时路网表现出更强的脆弱性;与路段相比,相同失效比例下节点失效对路网运营的影响要大于路段失效对路网性能的影响,路网表现出更强的脆弱性;与其他攻击方式相比,按照节点概率介数进行攻击时路网表现出更强的脆弱性,说明高速公路管理者应加强对概率介数大的节点保护。更多还原

【Abstract】 Within the networking process of expressways,some emergent incidents will lead to the failure of traffic capacity on some nodes or sections,and further affect the travel efficiency of the whole road network through coupling action of the nodes or sections.In order to ensure security and smoothness of traffic on expressway network,vulnerability assessment methodology that considers traffic flow weighting is proposed in the paper.In view of the deviation between the calculated path selection and actual situations during the calculation of betweeenness index of traditional complex network theory,in this paper travel route choice behavior and share of passenger and freight traffic flow are comprehensively considered,the probability betweenness index is defined to reflect the degree of network importance of the node or road sections which are selected under random scenarios.Second,the travel efficiency and satisfied rate of travel demand are taken as the quantified vulnerability index of expressways after failure of nodes or sections.The expressways vulnerability assessment methodology is put forward by combining with stochastic-balanceable traffic flow assignment.Finally,as per the descending order of importance degree of nodes and sections,the vulnerability of expressways is analyzed under different attacked modes on the basis of regional expressway network and toll data in Shandong Province.The results show that the regional expressway in Shandong Province is robust against traditional betweenness-based but fragile for choice betweenness-based malicious attacks.Under the identical removed fraction,node-based attack has larger influence on the normal operation of expressway network and more vulnerable than link-based attack.The largest flow betweenness node-based attacks will destroy the most effect on expressways among the different attack modes,which proves that the management department of expressway shall pay more attention to protection of large choice betweenness nodes.更多还原