【摘要】 从人员因素、抗灾救灾设备设施、道路交通系统和组织管理等多种角度建立了城市交通系统抗灾安全性综合风险评价指标体系。针对城市交通系统抗灾综合评价影响因素具有随机性、模糊性和数据资料不精确等多种不确定性,利用随机模拟方法模拟三角模糊数,把三角模糊数及其函数之间的运算简化为普通的实数之间的运算,从而建立城市交通系统抗灾安全性模糊随机模拟综合风险评价模型。研究表明,在评价结果一致的前提下以置信区间形式表示的综合风险评价结果比其他常规方法,提供的信息更加丰富,充分反映了受多种不确定性因素综合影响的城市交通系统抗灾安全性综合风险评价的客观实际情况,研究结果可为城市交通系统抗灾安全运行和升级改造提供决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The index system of comprehensive risk assessment for disaster resistance of traffic system is established in terms of human factors,disaster relief equipment and facilities,road transportation system,and organizational management.According to many uncertainty factors such as randomness,fuzziness and the shortage and imprecision of datum information of comprehensive risk assessment for disaster resistance of traffic system,Monte-Carlo method is presented to simulate triangular fuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventional operations of real numbers,and then an aggregative risk assessment method for disaster resistance of traffic system using stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers are established.The study results show that the assessment expressed by confidence intervals can provide more reliable information than that of common evaluation methods,which can reflect practical conditions of the aggregative risk assessment method for disaster resistance of traffic system,and can also be applied to comprehensive risk assessment problems of different disaster resistance of traffic system affected by many uncertainty factors.更多还原