【摘要】 对滇西实验场1992年以来前兆观测资料进行分析研究,选取映震效果通过R信度检验(对应M≥5.0地震)的8条单项前兆指标,综合考虑单项前兆指标虚报率和漏报率对指标信度的影响,对单项前兆指标利用数学模型进行综合处理,减少了虚报和漏报的次数,预测效果明显提高。综合预测方案不仅提高了地震短临预测信度,并提供了地点判定原则和震级估算原则。利用分级预警模式分别建立了中短期和短临预测模型,短临预测时间严格控制在3个月内,尽最大可能实现地震短临预测。本综合预测方案具有较好的可操作性,可实时动态跟踪地震危险性,提供地震短临预测三要素。更多还原

【Abstract】 By analyzing relationships between the observed precursory data and the earthquakes of M≥5.0 since 1992 in WYEPSA,we pick out 8 one-item precursory indicators which can pass R-test,and compute their respective weights based on its’ false-report ratios and fail-to-report ratios.It is proposed a dynamic tracing and decision-making scheme for short-term and imminent earthquake prediction in the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area(WYEPSA) based on a synthetic mathematical model in which each weight and corresponding ratio of 8 indicators is taken into account.This comprehensive predicting scheme not only improves the time reliability of short-term and imminent earthquake prediction,but also provides the principles of circling the potential risk area and estimating magnitude of predicted earthquake.Using this scheme we grade earthquake prediction into two models which are medium-term(within 6 months),short-term or imminent(within 3 months).Short-term or imminent prediction is realized as far as possible by this scheme.The scheme is easy to operate and can perform dynamic tracing.It can also provide three elements of the short-term or imminent earthquake prediction.更多还原