【摘要】 本文以中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测实践为基础,简要总结回顾了利用大地形变进行强震预测研究的工作思路、方法和一些进展;进而结合2001年昆仑山口西8.1级、2008年四川汶川8.0级特大地震前区域地壳运动变形背景和已有的研究结果,分析和探讨了基于大地形变监测、并考虑地震构造的差异性来进一步提高大震预测的有效性问题,得到了一些初步认识与启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on geodetic deformation monitoring and earthquake prediction in western China,we present a review on the approach,plan and progresses in the prediction of strong earthquakes according to geodetic deformation.And then,by combining regional crustal deformation background before the 2001 Kunlun mountain pass MS8.1 and 2008 Sichuan Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquakes with the existing results,we make an analysis and discussion on the issue of improving the effectiveness of predicting large earthquake based on both geodetic deformation monitoring and seismotectonic divergence.Finally,we present some preliminary thoughts based on the investigation.更多还原