【摘要】 本文是作者2003年底提交的2篇内部报告之一。文中指出我国冕宁台(DDC-2仪器)等可用的地电台,自1994年前后出现了长趋势、大范围、具有同步转折的规律性地电阻率震兆性异常变化,并于1999—2000年前后发生第2次同步转折或加速下降,根据这些地电前兆变化求得2000年以来,台站地下数百米深处的加强应力场的主压应力方向,发现其分布有规律,与周围板块运动有关。参照1976年唐山大地震的地电前兆经验,认为我国(含海域和台湾),特别是西部地区(在冕宁台周围二、三百公里范围内),近期(未来1~3年)存在发生7级或7级以上乃至8级特大地震的可能①。建议在川、滇地区增设地电台站,引进抗电磁干扰极强的新型仪器,开展短临预测新方法的实验,捕捉短临前兆。地震局特批"川滇地区地电强化测试项目",在冕宁、红格等4个台使用了新型抗干扰的PS-100仪器系统,捕捉地震短临前兆。至2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震前,仍在运转的红格台(距微观震中465km;距宏观震中北川640km)难能可贵地记录到汶川地震的HRT波短临地震前兆,表明地震的可预测性。更多还原

【Abstract】 This work was one of the two unpublished reports submitted to CEA in 2003. According to the intermediate-term precursors of geoelectric resistivity observed at the MN station (with DDC-2 instrument) and other reliable stations, the maximum principal stress direction was determined. On which we suggested that an earthquake with M=8 or greater would took place within 200～300 km from MN station in 2～3 years. In order to solve the problems of instability of electrode polarization, the interference of natural electromagnetic field, and especially the interference of random electric current due to industrialization, the PS-100 anti-interference, high-precision geoelectric measurement system has been applied, so as to search HRT wave with short-term or impending precursors.更多还原