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印尼M_W9.0地震的短临地电波(声波:潮汐力谐振共振波,HRT波)波动前兆──HRT波法进行短临地震准确预测可能性的探讨

HRT Wave Precursor to the Sumatra Earthquake: the Feasibility of Accurate Earthquake Prediction

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【作者】 赵玉林赵璧如钱卫赵健黄清华孙振凯张洪魁卢军李世愚张平钱复业

【Author】 Zhao Yulin~(1)),Zhao Biru~(2)),Qian Wei~(3)),Zhao Jian~(2)),Huang Qinghua~(1,4)),Sun Zhenkai~(1)),Zhang Hongkui~(1,5)),Lu Jun~(6)),Li Shiyu~(1)), Zhang Ping~(7)) and Qian Fuye~(1))1) Institute of Geophysics,CEA,Beijing 100081,China 2) Tianjin Haitai Communication Co.Ld.,Tianjin 300201,China 3) Dept.of Physics,Univ.of Toronto 4) Dept.of Geophysics,Peking Univ.,Beijing 100871,China 5) Earthquake Administration of Beijing,Beijing 100080,China 6) China Earthquake Network Center,Beijing 100036,China 7) Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650041,China

【机构】 中国地震局地球物理研究所天津海太光电科技有限公司加拿大多伦多大学物理系中国地震台网中心云南省地震局中国地震局地球物理研究所 北京100081天津300201北京100081北京大学地球物理系北京100871北京市地震局北京100080北京100036昆明65004

【摘要】 新研制的抗干扰高精度PS100大地电测仪器系统,在中国川滇地区的台站上记录到印尼MW9.0海啸地震的地电前兆。本文将分析论证地电前兆的波动特性,特别是其传播规律。在印尼地震前约3个月开始出现周期等于潮汐力周期(如MSf、K1、M2等)、振幅异常增大的地电潮汐力谐振波(Harmonie waves driven by tidal frces,简称HT波);地震前2天(北京时2004年12月24日10时)出现地电潮汐力共振波(Resonancewaves driven by tidal frces,简称RT波)。RT波有纵波和横波,初步确定纵波速度Vl≈307 km/h;横波速度Vt≈126 km/h,是一种在地壳多孔岩石孔隙流体中传播的声波。其固有振动周期T0=4~5 h;其振幅很大达2.9%(超出观测标准偏差17倍),异常极为显著;峰值异常尖锐,Q≈8.3。与地震同时从震源发出的RT波为断层破裂所激发,故推断地震前2天所出现的RT波系MW9.0地震震源区断层前期破裂所致。在可预见的将来,根据震前RT波出现的时间,台站所记纵、横波的到时差及T0,对强震在震前1~3天定量预测其三要素(如果有一布设合理的PS100台网)是可能的。

【Abstract】 Four sets of PS100,a newly developed anti-interference high-precision geoelectric measurement system,have been stationed in Sichuan and Yunnan and recorded the harmonic resonance waves of geoelectricity driven by tidal forces(HRT wave ) prior to the MW9.0 Sumatra earthquake.At resonance T=T0,where the wattless component of the impedance is equal to zero,the RT wave peak will be very large,sharp and an earthquake will impend within 13 days.As preliminarily estimated,the phase velocity of the RT longitudinal waves is Vl=307 km/h and the virtual wave veocity Vv=(Vl×Vt)/(Vl-Vt) is 207 km/h.Hence,as long as the arrival time difference of the 2 RT waves at one station is known,it is possible to calculate the epicentral distance of a coming earthquake quantitatively.For the Sumatra earthquake,the free period of oscillation is T0=45 h,from which the magnitude of the coming earthquake can be determined.Both the arrival time difference and the virtual wave velocity during and before the earthquake are almost equal to each other,the RT waves during the earthquake were emitted by the fault failure,and the RT waves appearing 2 days before the earthquake were emitted by the early failure of the fault in the hypocenter region of the earthquake.If we have a reasonably designed the PS100 network,it will be possible to quantitatively predict the three elements of a coming earthquake.

  • 【文献出处】 国际地震动态 ,Recent Developments in World Seismology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2006年08期
  • 【分类号】P315.722
  • 【被引频次】13
  • 【下载频次】213
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