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东北振兴背景下“去杠杆”与“保增长”的门槛效应研究

Research on the Threshold Effect of “De-Leverage” and “Growth Assurance” in the Background of Northeast Revitalization

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【作者】 郑尚植杨富泽傅子轩

【Author】 Zheng Shangzhi;Yang Fuze;Fu Zixuan;School of Marxism,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;School of Finance,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;

【通讯作者】 杨富泽;

【机构】 东北财经大学马克思主义学院东北财经大学金融学院东北财经大学财政税务学院

【摘要】 本文选取东北三省31个地级市2003~2017年的面板数据,基于门槛模型对东北地区金融发展与经济增长二者之间的关系进行实证分析,研究结果表明:存在门槛值为2.3464,当小于这一阈值时金融发展与经济增长不存在相关关系,当大于这一阈值时,金融发展与经济增长呈现负相关关系。因此本文认为要在合理门槛区间内进行适度去杠杆,切勿盲目降低杠杆率,要做到既能使金融健康发展,同时经济可以保持平稳健康发展,从而为东北地区经济改革做出贡献。

【Abstract】 This article selects panel data of 31 cities in the three Northeast provinces in 2003~2017,based on threshold model to make an empirical analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the empirical analysis,and draws the following conclusion.The results show that it exists threshold value of 2.3464,when less than the rich value,there is no correlation between financial development and economic growth,when more than the net value,there is a negative correlation between financial development and economic growth.Therefore,this paper believes that moderate deleveraging should be carried out within the reasonable threshold range,not to mention daily reduction of leverage ratio.It is necessary to achieve both healthy financial development and stable and healthy economic development,and make contributions to the economic reform in Northeast China.

【基金】 国家社会科学基金青年项目“政府作用效率视阈下最优政府规模的理论重构、模型估算与实现路径研究”(项目编号:16CJY063)
  • 【文献出处】 工业技术经济 ,Journal of Industrial Technological Economics , 编辑部邮箱 ,2019年10期
  • 【分类号】F127;F832.7
  • 【被引频次】2
  • 【下载频次】360
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