【摘要】 探究城镇化对生态脆弱、环境敏感的大西北和黄河中游两大综合经济区绿色发展绩效的影响,对于实现全国绿色发展战略目标有着决定性意义。文中创新性地选取大西北和黄河中游经济区62个地级及以上城市2003-2016年数据,运用全局非径向方向性距离函数构建绿色发展绩效指数(GDPI),深刻揭示了该地区绿色发展状况。进一步地,为克服已有文献使用线性模型研究的局限性,文中选取城镇化率作为门槛变量,运用基于拓展的STIRPAT模型的面板门槛回归,更为准确地刻画了城镇化与绿色发展绩效之间的非线性关系。发现以城镇化率77.3%与93.4%为门槛值,城镇化对绿色发展绩效的影响分为前期消极抑制、中期微弱促进、后期积极促进三个阶段。更多还原

【Abstract】 Exploring the impact of urbanization on green development performance of the northwest economic region and the middle reaches of Yellow River economic region, where ecological environment is fragile, is decisive for achieving national green development. Data of 62 cities in the northwest economic region and the middle reaches of Yellow River economic region in 2003-2016 were applied and the global non-radial directional distance function was used to calculate the green development performance index(GDPI), and reveal the state of green development in the region. Further, in order to overcome the limitations of linear models, the panel threshold regression based on the extended STIRPAT model was used to describe the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and green development performance, with the urbanization rate as the threshold variable. There are two structure change points, 77.3% and 93.4% respectively. Before the first threshold point, the coefficient is negative. In the second stage, the coefficient is positive. After crossing the second threshold point, the positive effect is further enhanced.更多还原