【摘要】 根据新疆北部40个站点1961—2016年逐日气温、降水数据,采用数理统计、倾向率法、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析等方法,研究北疆地区近56 a气候变化特征、变化趋势以及变化的空间差异。结果表明:在研究时段内,气候总体呈气温升高、降水量增加的暖湿化趋势,年平均气温以0. 34℃·（10a）^-1速率上升,年降水量递增速率12. 05 mm·（10a）^-1; Mann-Kendall突变检验显示,气温在1991年发生突变后升高,降水量1987年出现突变后逐渐增多;年平均气温变化表现出6 a、14 a和28 a周期性规律,降水量变化有4 a、12 a和22 a的规律;在空间上,气温增速东西大于南北,降水量增量山区多于平原和盆地,西部多于东部。更多还原

【Abstract】 The mathematical statistics,trend rate method,Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to study the characteristics,trends and spatial difference of climate change in North Xinjiang in the past 56 years based on the daily temperature and precipitation data from 40 stations in North Xinjiang from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that,during the study period,there was generally a warming-wetting climate change trend. The annual average temperature increased by 0. 34 ℃ ·（ 10 a）^-1,and the increase rate of annual precipitation was 12. 05 mm·（ 10 a）^-1. Mann-Kendall mutation test showed that the temperature increased after 1991,and the precipitation increased gradually after its mutation in 1987; there were the 6-,14-and 28-year periodical changes of annual mean temperature,and the 4-,12-and 22-year ones of annual precipitation. In terms of spatial differences,the temperature increase was higher in the east and west than that in the north and south,and the precipitation increase was higher in the mountainous regions than that in the plains and basins and higher in the west than that in the east.更多还原