【摘要】 在工程造价管理系统中,需要对大型工程项目的造价进行数学建模,实现统筹规划,节约开支。传统的工程造价数学建模中,采用大型建筑工程不定开销波动预测方法,把工程经济开销数据序列看作是一组非线性时间序列,并采用Lyapunov指数预测算法进行造价波动预测,传统算法没能有效考虑改造工程的复杂不定因素,预测精度不高。不能有效满足寿命期内维护成本现值最小化和状态指标最大化的原则。本文提出一种基于主成分分析和交叉均衡的大型工程项目的造价数学仿真模型。分析大型建筑工程项目的造价约束关系,得到大型工程项目的生产质量—效率—成本控制模型,采用主成分分析方法对建设工程造价预测的优化问题进行重构,得到大型工程建设的造价约束多目标贴近度数学模型,基于交叉均衡原理,根据累计方差的贡献程度,采用时间序列的估计方法对工程预算增长指数时间序列进行估计,结合Lyapunov指数预测算法,实现工程造价数学建模与造价预测算法的改进设计。仿真实验结果表明,该模型进行工程造价数学建模和预测,精度较高,均方误差较小。在相同的建筑体质量下节约工程造价成本23%,提高建筑质量,节约工程开销,具有较强的工程应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In engineering cost management system, we need to proceed mathematical modeling for large engineering project cost to realize the overall planning and to cut down expenses. In the course of traditional project cost mathematical modeling,we have adopted the variable cost fluctuation prediction method and regarded engineering economic costdata sequence as a set of nonlinear time series, and also we have adopted the Lyapunov index prediction algorithm to forecast the cost volatility. While the traditional algorithm cannot effectively consider the complex uncertain factors of the renovation projects, and then the accuracy is not high, it cannot effectively satisfy the principle of maintaining the minimization of the present cost value and the maximization of state indicator within the life span. A mathematical model for the simulation of large engineering project cost is proposed based on principal component analysis and cross equalization. From analysis of the cost constraint relationship of large scale construction project, we can get the production quality-efficiency-cost control model of the large engineering project;by using the method of principal component analysis to reconstruct the optimization problem of construction project cost forecasting, we can get the cost constraints multi-objective close degree mathematical model for large-scale construction;based on the principle of cross equalization, according to the cumulative contribution degree of the variance, and using the method of time series, we estimate the time series for engineering budget growth index;and combining Lyapunov index prediction algorithm, the improvement for the design of the project cost mathematical modeling and cost calculation method can be achieved. The simulation experiment results show that the model has higher precision, and smaller mean square error. With it we can save project cost by 23% for building of the same quality, with the merits of improving construction quality as well as saving engineering costs, it has strong application value in engineering.更多还原