【摘要】 进入21世纪,中国能源和矿产资源消费快速增长,许多重要矿产消费量甚至超过了全球消费总量的一半。未来中长期资源需求预测是国家政策制定和战略规划的重要依据。本文基于中国人口、国内生产总值(GDP)、矿产资源消费量等历史统计数据,选择了人均消费"S"形规律、需求类比和比例关系测算法、部门消费法等方法,对2035年之前43种(类)主要矿产资源的需求量进行了系统预测。结果显示:我国矿产资源需求从全面高速增长向差异化增长转变;2025年前多数大宗矿产将陆续达到需求峰值;2030年一次能源达到需求峰值时的结构会发生重大变化,煤炭将从2017年的60.4%下降到46.3%,天然气将从6.6%增加到13.2%,非化石能源将从13.6%增长到23.4%;2035年大部分战略性新兴矿产仍将保持需求增长,全球供需结构和供需格局都将发生极大改变。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 2000, China’s consumption of energy and mineral resources has grown rapidly, and its consumption of some important mineral resources has even exceeded half of the global consumption. Medium-and long-term resource demand forecast is an important basis for national policy formulation and strategic planning. Based on historical statistics such as China’s population, GDP, and mineral resources consumption, this paper adopts the S-shape rule of per capita consumption, the demand analogy and proportional relationship measurement algorithm, and the departmental consumption method, to systematically predict the demand for 43 types of major mineral resources before 2035. Results show that China’s demand for mineral resources has changed from high-speed growth to differential growth; its demand for most of the bulk minerals will peak by 2025; the structure of primary energy sources will change dramatically when their demand peak by 2030, with the demand for Coal falling from 60.4% in 2017 to 46.3%, that for natural gas increasing from 6.6% to 13.2%, and that for non-fossil energy increasing from 13.6% to 23.4%; and demand for most strategic emerging minerals will continue to grow before 2035, and the global structure and pattern of supply and demand for energy and mineral resources will change greatly.更多还原