【摘要】 随着城市化进程的加快,邻避冲突愈演愈烈,对其成因进行分析十分重要。为探究项目风险演化为邻避冲突的关键影响因素,在对已有研究成果梳理总结的基础上,归纳得到13个线索因素,构建出邻避风险演化单一系统设计透镜模型,以实现主观认知判断对决策标的预测。运用Policy EXC软件对回收的SJT问卷数据进行仿真,经过整合分析确定3个具有预测作用的线索,分别为政府部门的信息封闭、环境遭受污染程度及生活质量受损程度。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasing urbanization rate in our country, the occurrence of "not in my back yard"(NIMBY) conflict has become intensified, so it is particularly important to analyze the causes of these conflicts.Therefore, to explore the effects of the risk evolution of NIMBY projects on NIMBY conflicts, we have generalized and identified 13 cues(decision reference variables) by summarizing the existing research results. Further, to realize prediction about the influencing factors whereby NIMBY risk evolves into NIMBY conflict, we then constructed a single system design lens model of NIMBY conflict evolution and prediction. Based on the simulation analysis of 75 collected pieces of valid SJT questionnaire data collected by Policy EXC software, through integration and analysis we obtained the following three predictability cues: government departments closing and not sharing NIMBY information, degree of environmental pollution, and impaired quality of life.更多还原