【摘要】 地震预警是国内外地学研究的热点,是复杂的社会工程。地震预警工程是跨学科的工程,特别是涉及自然科学和社会科学的结合。本文就地震预警的一些基本概念和由地震预警原理带来的工程上的若干问题,进行了比较详细的讨论。介绍了地震预警的概念和种类、地震预警的模式、地震预警的能力,强调了地震预警盲区、受益区、无效区的不同能力,提出了地震预警第一报的重要性。指出了地震预警技术不仅带来减灾效果,还催生了密集地震观测网,突破了传统地震观测网的观测方式和处理方法,将为传统的地震观测学和实时地震学带来创新和变革。论述了当前地震预警技术的局限和存在的问题。结合国内外地震预警的现状,提出了地震预警工程需要注意的问题及需要研究的方向,指出地震预警是复杂的社会工程,首次提出了地震预警的社会容忍度及社会对地震预警容忍度的差异,同时探讨了地震预警效益和风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Earthquake early warning(EEW) is a hot topic in domestic and foreign research. It is a complex social engineering. Earthquake early warning engineering is an interdisciplinary engineering, particularly in the combination between natural science and social science. In this paper, some problems about some basic concepts of earthquake early warning and some problems brought by the earthquake early warning theory, are discussed in detail. This paper introduces the concept and types of earthquake early warning, earthquake early warning model, ability of earthquake early warning and it also emphasizes the different ability of earthquake early warning, benefit area, blind area of invalid area and points out the importance of the first report of earthquake early warning. This paper points out that the earthquake early warning technology not only brings mitigation for disaster, but also stimulates a dense seismic observation network, which is a breakthrough compared to traditional observation methods and processing methods and will bring innovation and reform to the traditional seismic observation network, especially for real-time seismology. This paper discusses the current earthquake early warning technology limitations and problems. Combining the current situation of domestic and international earthquake early warning system, the paper puts forward the need to pay attention to the earthquake early warning engineering and strategy for research, points out that the earthquake early warning is a complex social project. The difference between social tolerance of earthquake early warning and the society’s tolerance to earthquake early warning is first proposed. The risks and benefits of earthquake early warning are also discussed in this paper.更多还原