【摘要】 泥石流的发生受到多种因素的影响和制约,泥石流的风险评价是复杂的系统性问题.基于多维云模型理论探讨了泥石流的风险评价模型,文章选取了影响泥石流灾害发生的10个指标,构建了各个评价因子的云模型,并计算了样本相对于易发性等级的确定度.最后将此方法用于神龙架林区5条泥石流沟的泥石流风险评价,并和其它方法进行了对比,表明此方法有效可行、计算简便且可靠性高,值得在不确定性分析中进行推广.更多还原

【Abstract】 The occurrence of debris flow is affected and restricted by many factors.The risk assessment of debris flow is a complex systematic problem.For this reason,this paper discusses the debris flow risk assessment model based on multidimensional cloud model theory.The paper selects 14 indicators that affect the occurrence of debris flow disasters,builds a cloud model of each evaluation factor,and calculates the degree of certainty of the sample relative to the susceptibility level.Finally,this method is applied to the risk assessment of debris flow in the 5 debris flow ditches in the Shenlongjia forest area.Compared with other methods,this method is proved to be effective,feasible,simple and reliable,and worthy of promotion in the uncertainty analysis.更多还原