【摘要】 本文以四川茂县叠溪镇到石大关乡为研究区,根据野外资料并结合研究区的基本情况,选取了坡度、剖面曲率、起伏度、坡向、距河流距离、高程、地层、距断层距离、土地类型、植被覆盖度10个影响因子。以GIS技术作为操作平台,采用确定性系数+层次分析法(CF-AHP)、确定性系数+逻辑回归方法(CF-LR)和确定性系数+神经网络的多层感知器方法(CF-MLP) 3种方法对研究区滑坡灾害敏感性进行评价,将该区域滑坡灾害划分为极低、低、中、高敏感区4类,并通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)检验模型的效果。CF-AHP、CF-LR和CF-MLP组合模型ROC曲线的线下面积(AUC)分别为0. 850、0. 884和0. 867,CF-LR组合模型效果最好。CF-LR组合模型中,高、中、低和极低敏感区面积分别占研究区总面积的11. 3%、25. 1%、22. 5%和41. 1%。研究结果表明,高敏感区主要集中在主要水系周围与断层集中区域,计算出的敏感性分区结果与研究区实际情况接近,能够在地质灾害风险评价中起到重要参考作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The research area of this paper is located from Diexi Township to Shidaguan Township,Maoxian County,Sichuan Province. Ten impact factors are selected according to the field data and the basic conditions of the study area. They are the slope,slope direction,section curvature,elevation,undulation,stratum,distance from the river,distance from the fault,land type and vegetation coverage. Using GIS technology as the operating platform,three methods are used to evaluate the sensitivity of landslide hazard in the study area. They are the deterministic coefficient + analytic hierarchy process( CF-AHP),the deterministic coefficient + logistic regression method( CF-LR) and the deterministic coefficient + multi-layer perceptron method of neural network( CF-MLP),The landslide hazard in this area is divided into four categories: extremely low,low,medium and high sensitive areas. The effect of the model is tested by receiver operating characteristic curve( ROC). The under-line area( AUC) of the ROC curves of the CF-AHP,CF-LR and CF-MLP combined models are 0. 850,0. 884 and 0. 867,respectively. The CF-LR combination model works best. In the CF-LR combination model,the areas of high,medium,low and extremely low sensitive area account for 11. 3%,25. 1%,22. 5% and 41. 1% of the total area of the study area,respectively. The results show that the high sensitive area is mainly located around the main water system and fault-developed area. The calculated sensitivity zoning results are close to the actual situation in field.Thus,the results are valuable for risk assessment of geological disasters.更多还原