【摘要】 汶川地震重灾区,由地震触发的地质灾害数量很多,其中危岩体稳定性判定为灾害治理重点工作。基于可靠度理论,针对坠落式危岩体稳定性极限状态特征,建立其可靠度判定概率极限状态方程,并采用现场量测及概率统计方法,对功能函数中危岩破裂面倾角β、危岩等效摩擦角φ、单位长度危岩体重力ω、危岩等效黏聚力c、危岩体高度h等基本变量的均值、变异性及分布形态进行确定。基于以上研究成果,建立了坠落式危岩体稳定性可靠度指标计算方法,同时对各基本变量的可靠度敏感性进行研究,研究结果表明:其敏感性由大到小依次为危岩破裂面倾角β、危岩等效黏聚力c、危岩的高度h、单位长度危岩体重力ω、危岩等效摩擦角φ,研究成果为坠落式危岩体稳定性判定和治理方案设计提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the harder-hit earthquake areas such as Wenchuan,the constancy of unstable rock is considered as a key work of the disaster control because there are many kinds of geologic hazards caused by the earthquake. This paper is based on the reliability theory and uses the limit state characteristics of falling unstable rocks. It establishes the equation of constancy judging probability limit state. It also determines the mean value,variability and distribution shape of the unstable rock angle β of rupture,the unstable rock angle φ of equivalent internal friction,weight per unit length,equivalent cohesion,height and other basic variables in the functions by means of field measurement and probability statistics. Based on these studies,the paper develops the calculation method of falling unstable rock stability reliability index. At the same time,it studies the parameter sensitivity of each basic variable.The result shows that the variables in descending order from high to low sensitivity are the unstable rock angle β of rupture,the equivalent cohesion,the height,the weight per unit length and the angle φ of equivalent internal friction. The result offers a reference in judging the constancy of unstable rock and designing of a regulation scheme.更多还原