【摘要】 在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段。为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系;同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架。随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向。建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Newmark displacement model is preliminarily used for quantitative seismic landslide hazard assessment in Chinese mainland. In order to distinguish concepts and promote the application of this mechanical model based assessment method,we firstly analyze the correlation of the narrow sense seismic landslide hazard forecast assessment and post-earthquake inversion assessment. In order to meet different landslide assessing requirements under earthquake emergency response, post-earthquake reconstruction and potential earthquake conditions,we preliminarily develop a generalized seismic landslide hazard assessment framework. Then,we review the theoretical foundation,basic assumptions,method classification and their applicability of seismic landslide hazard assessment method in association with Newmark model. Also,the latest progress of regional assessment method using simplified displacement is reviewed. Taking the rapid assessment for Wenchuan earthquake inducing landslide hazard as an example,we analyze uncertainties and spatial data problem which affect the effectiveness of assessment. We suggest the improvements to the mechanical model based seismic landslide hazard assessment. It should be noted that the coupled hazard assessment of potential earthquake and the inducing landslide needs to becarried out. Empirical seismic landslide displacement analyzing model applicable to Chinese mainland needs to be developed,so as to promote national seismic landslide hazard zoning.更多还原