【摘要】 本文追溯地震海啸危险性分析研究的兴起与发展,介绍地震海啸危险性分析的原理和方法,综述地震海啸危险性分析的常用工具———地震海啸数值模式的研究进展,讨论目前地震海啸危险性分析研究中存在的主要困难和问题。指出建立地震海啸危险性分析不确定性的定性分析和定量评估方法,进行地震海啸危险性分析的不确定性评估,应是今后的一个重要研究方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The authors trace the rise and development of seismic tsunamis hazard analysis,and introduce its principle and the research progress of seismic tsunami numerical model used in it.The main difficulties as well as problems to be solved in it are also discussed in this paper.The authors point out that: establishing the qualitative and quantitative methods to estimate the uncertainty in seismic tsunami hazard analysis effectively will be one of the important research directions in the near future.更多还原