【摘要】 重大自然灾害中灾害链对灾情的巨大放大、累加作用,使灾害链研究备受关注。基于灾害系统理论,以中国汶川"5.12"地震灾害和日本福岛"3.11"地震灾害为例进行了地震灾害链梳理和区域对比,并探讨了不同灾害系统下,孕灾环境和承灾体对灾害链致灾成灾的影响。通过构建承灾体脆弱性与灾情累积关系的概念模型,阐述了灾害链对灾情的放大机制。研究表明:汶川地震具有陆地山区灾害链特征,主要灾害链为地震→崩塌/滑坡→(泥石流→)堰塞湖灾害链和地震→结构破坏→设施受损灾害链;日本地震具有海洋岛屿灾害链特征,主要灾害链为地震→海啸→核事故灾害链、地震→(海啸→)结构破坏→火灾/生命线系统损毁灾害链和地震→滑坡/火山/水库溃坝灾害链等;两场地震灾害中灾害链的成因及灾害链对灾情的放大过程差异显著;福岛地震灾害链危害巨大,使灾情在其他相关国家放大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the disaster system theory,this paper took two earthquake disasters,the 12 May Wenchuan earthquake in China and the 11 March Tohoku earthquake in Japan,as examples— to study the earthquake disaster chains.Then,those chains were compared to analyze their effects on cumulative losses.A concept model was developed about the relation between vulnerability and loss to explain earthquake chains’ magnified effect on loss.The conclusions are: in the Wenchuan earthquake disaster,the main chains include the earthquake →landslide(→debris flow)→quake lake chain and the earthquake →structural damage → facilities damage chain;in the Tohoku Earthquake,the main chains are the earthquake→tsunami→nuclear accident chain,the earthquake(→tsunami)→fire/lifeline systems paralysis chain and the earthquake→landslides / soil liquefaction / subsidence / volcano chain.These two earthquake disasters have significant differences in both the factors that lead to the earthquake chains and the cumulative amplification effects on losses through disaster chains.Earthquake chains make the Tohoku earthquake magnified in other related countries.更多还原