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利用最大熵原理预测安徽及华东地区中小地震活动水平

Use the Maximum Entropy Principle to Analyze the Earthquake in Anhui and East China

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【作者】 李罡风刘世靖王洋

【Author】 Li Gangfeng,Liu Shijin,Wang Yang(Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province,Hefei 230031)

【机构】 安徽省地震局

【摘要】 利用最大熵原理对安徽及华东地区中小地震活动水平进行统计预测,结果显示:安徽地区一年之内一般会发生Ms≥2.5地震,有可能发生Ms≥3.0地震,然而发生Ms≥3.5级地震的可能性不大。华东地区一年内一般会发生Ms≥3.5地震,有可能发生Ms≥4.0级地震,但发生Ms≥4.5级地震的可能性不大。

【Abstract】 Use the maximum entropy principle to analyze the earthquake activity in Anhui and East China.The results are follows: within one year,in Anhui region the probability Ms≥2.5 is between 0.8 and 1.0,the probability Ms≥3.0 is between 0.5 and 0.8,but the probability Ms≥3.5 is between 0.3 and 0.5.In East China,the probability Ms≥3.5 is between 0.8 and 1.0,the probability Ms≥4.0 is between 0.5 and 0.8,but the probability Ms≥4.5 is between 0.3 and 0.5.

  • 【文献出处】 防灾科技学院学报 ,Journal of Institute of Disaster-Prevention Science and Technology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2010年01期
  • 【分类号】P315.5
  • 【下载频次】68
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