【摘要】 利用现有地震目录,在假定我国大陆地区为一个相对独立的地震活动区,巨大地震的孕育不受其它地区地震的影响的前提下,分析了巨大地震活动特征。结果表明,我国大陆地区巨大地震活动具有成组性和阶段性特点。由此对本世纪巨大地震发生进行了估计:本世纪我国大陆地区尚可发生6次左右巨大地震,下次巨大地震最早可在2019年前后发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 Provided the Chinese mainland is a relatively independent region of seismicity where the pregnancy of great earthquakes could not be affected by earthquakes in other areas,the regular pattern of the great earthquakes is investigated by use of the existing earthquake catalog.The result shows that the great earthquakes usually occur in a group and appear different characteristics in different stages.According to that,the occurrence of great earthquakes in this century is estimated: there could be about 6 more great earthquakes occurring in the 21st century and the next great earthquake could occur foremost around in 2019.更多还原