【摘要】 为研究韶关市极端降水变化特征,基于韶关市1951～2017年逐日降水数据,采用极端降水阈值、线性倾向设计、5年滑动平均和皮尔逊相关法等方法,从年极端降水量、年极端降水日数以及年极端降水强度等方面分析韶关市67年间极端降水的特征,并从极端降水和厄尔尼诺等级的影响等角度,探讨韶关市极端降水变化特征。研究表明:①韶关市极端降水总量的增加主要是极端降水日数增加所造成;②韶关市年极端降水对总降水量贡献较大,达到40%以上;③在厄尔尼诺事件时,韶关市极端降水日数增加,减弱时极端降水日数减少。研究为韶关市旱涝灾害及土壤保持等工作提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in Shaoguan City, based on daily precipitation data from 1951 to 2017, it was applied the extreme precipitation threshold, linear trend design, 5-year moving average and Pearson correlation method to analyze the extreme precipitation characteristics in Shaoguan City in 67 years from the aspects of annual extreme precipitation, annual extreme precipitation days and annual extreme precipitation intensity, and from the perspective of impacts of the extreme precipitation and Elni grades. The results show that: ①the increase of the total amount of extreme precipitation in Shaoguan City is mainly caused by the increase of the days of extreme precipitation; ②the annual extreme precipitation in Shaoguan City contributes more than 40% to the total precipitation; and ③the days of extreme precipitation in Shaoguan City increase when the El Nio event occurs, while the days of extreme precipitation decrease when the El Nio event weakened. The study provides a reference for drought and flood disasters prevention and soil conservation in Shaoguan City.更多还原